QPRESS
morning market report
070519 US Futures
070519 US Tnote 10 year after Jobs
070519 CME FED watch after payrolls
070519 Live Gold
Morning Market Report-*jobs,jobs,jobs edition
10Y is back over 2.00%-see cap#3. Stock futures are sinking. The Dollar is spiking which, in turn, sent gold down as well, see cap#5.
June Employment Report: 224,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down from +224,000 to +216,000, and the change for May was revised down from +75,000 to +72,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 11,000 less than previously reported.
This is also skewed by an increase in hiring for the upcoming census.
June Employment Report: 224,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent …
The gov’t really needs to overhaul these metrics in a big way. These are always revised down the next month and using rolling averages is a legacy issue created by several past administrations to hide or mask the true nature of job growth/contraction.
See here for a better read on what the true picture is: http://www.shadowstats.com/
CME data, Cap#4 has dropped the odds of a bigger than .25%(25 basis point cut) on the news. This was also the best monthly increase since January, and a number that has made 2 rate cuts at the Fed’s July meeting virtually impossible, and even setting the scene for a Fed that may in fact be “patient” in three weeks, crushing market hopes for an imminent easing cycle.
The odds of a 50bps cut in July have plunged from 27% to 9%. We will get a .25% rate cut, a bigger one would have been nice but such is life. I doubt they would have done it anyway
In ded bank walking news…we have this:
Deutsche Bank’s investment bank chief Ritchie agrees to step down
Deutsche Bank
s investment banking chief Garth Ritchie is stepping down, the bank said on Friday. The move, long speculated, comes as Deutsche prepares a broad multi-billion dollar overhaul that will see big cuts to the investment banking division.
Deutsche Bank’s investment bank chief Ritchie agrees to step down
Deutsche Bank’s <DBKGn.DE> investment banking chief Garth Ritchie is stepping down, the bank said on Friday.
European bourses suffered with the pan-region STOXX 600 slipping 0.3%, dragged lower by the basic resource and industrial goods & services sectors which both fell more than 1.5%. A sharp drop in China iron ore futures hit miners. Tech shares retreated 0.9% after Samsung
s dour forecast showed the impact of U.S.-China trade war on global chip and smartphone markets, sending Infineon, STMicroelectronics and Siltronic as much as 1.5% lower.
German data showed Europe’s largest economy was still stuck in pre-recessionary limbo with industrial orders falling far more than expected in May, and a warning from the economy ministry this sector of Europe
s largest economy was likely to remain weak in the coming months.
Europe’s losses followed gains in Asia, where MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan was set for its fifth straight weekly rise. S&P futures and Shanghai Composite index both hovered near 3,000-mark in muted post-holiday trade. Asian stocks traded sideways, heading for the fifth week of gains, their longest winning streak since January 2018
In rates, Treasury futures dipped, lifting the 10-year yield fractionally to 1.958% after hitting the lowest since November 2016 at 1.941%; Aussie curve little changed. JGB futures edge higher, supported by buying in ultra long-end, despite strongest Japanese spending pace in four years.
Germany
s 10-year government bund yield, fell to minus 0.4% and breached the European Central Bank
s deposit rate for the first time – a level analysts say acts as a psychological barrier even though shorter-dated German bond yields trade well below it.
China continues to stress that the U.S. must remove all the tariffs placed on Chinese goods as a condition for reaching a trade deal. Sorry not gonna habben but you go right ahead and keep gas-lighting that line as it won’t work. The hubris of that is just astounding…like we did not build your country up with
the socialistic policy’s the democrats forced all of us to accept in favor of your economy-fuck you.
A few sentences taken from this ZH article
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge – On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
Bloomberg
No Description
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
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2019-07-05T09:34:05Z