QPRESS
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070519 US Closed
070519 US Tnote closed
070519 LIVE gold closed
070519 US Crude closed
US Market Report-Holiday shortened week edition
Futures indicated a drop of about a hundy on the DOW. As it opened it began it’s trek down to the Low’s of the day at 10:44am EST.
Then a nice V-bottom buying spree and a slow crawl back up to just about even – a few points to the down side. It finished up halving the futures loss, RU2K managed a tiny gain-winning.
The bigger news is the Jobs numbers but that is another story, take it FWIW as they are an imperfect way to measure real growth/contraction. The result is what matters.
The volumes are all low and you want to see that on a down to flat day. It means there is confidence that this is only a temporary helathy, normal consolidation of the upwards movement.
Shaking out weak hands is always good and the 8 years prior to POTUS election victory this process was NEVER allowed to habben in a meaningful way
The jobs report also pointed to persistent moderate wage gains and mounting evidence that the economy was losing momentum. It all depends on which ‘lens’ you chose to view it with.
Gold took a nose-dive on the NYMEX open and the record amount of open-interest long postions began to be liquidated.
The next ‘official’ release on how many contracts were actually sold will come on Monday, July 8th. Exepect a significant change to the downside.
This is yet another thing that needs to change as this is a weekly report. Needs to be real-time. Other places to see this however all you need to
do is look at the price action to know there is much closing out of those positions. Gold has had a nice bounce just below $1390.xx and is looking to reclaim some of that loss.
The CME Fed watch data has also changed too. See Cap#4. This another reason for the sell-off in gold. The FOMC is seen to be moar hawkish now because the jobs numbers support continued growth,
yet some recent economic numbers such as Purchasing Mgrs.Index suggest otherwise-gloabl PMI is in the shiter too-but this is how globalism dies.
We will be getting a rate cut as the bond market speaks for the FRB in this instance. A common miss-conception is taht the FOMC sets interest rates.
They do not. The ONLY thing they have control over is what the PRIME rate is set at, and that is being generous. The bond market also speaks to this too.
The 10 year note got it’s juice up and back over 2% as well, See Cap#3. Despite Friday
s losses, major equity indexes were still on pace for solid weekly gains.
Shares of banks .SPXBK, which have been under pressure from falling benchmark debt yields in recent weeks, rose 0.70% and helped drive a 0.32% gain in the financial sector one of the few bright spots among S&P sectors.
Remember the banks all ‘passed’ the FRB’s stress test-even Deutsche Bank and that is just such a ridiculous pile of steaming bullshit.
They pass this test because the FRB allows them to remove much of the crappy assets on their books and mark them as ‘hold to maturity’-thus removing them from scrutiny. As Walter Sobchak said “Mark it ZERO”.
The defensive names such as real estate, utilities and consumer staples- each declined as a rise in U.S. Treasury yields served to make the dividend-paying companies less attractive.
A big move in bond market but pails in comparison the last time the day after July 4th fell on a friday.
from July 5th 2013
Treasury yields mark largest daily rise since 2010
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-soar-to-2011-high-on-jobs-data-2013-07-05
Some headlines
Distress in junk bond prices hit 6-month high in June: J.P. Morgan
go figure as this was the last interest rate rise from muh FOMC and muh10 year note was at roughly 2.8%.
POTUS’ Fed choice Judy Shelton says interest-rate cut needed because Europe is set to devalue euro
they are also going to deal with the Deutsche Bank ‘issue’ by buying up the crap assets they have, thus ‘placing an insurance bet’ on them to show everyone else they think it’s all ‘ok’.
have a nice continued holiday weekend patriots.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?
2019-07-05T16:16:50Z